How Will Climate Change Shift the Suitable Area of Seven Woody Bamboo Species in Nepal? Evidences from Ensemble Species Distribution Modeling

Bamboo, a species with multiple applications in construction, manufacturing, bioengineering, and disaster recovery, is vital to rural livelihoods in Nepal. This study explores the current and future distribution of seven woody bamboo species (Bambusa balcooa, Bambusa jaintiana, Bambusa nepalensis, Bambusa nutans, Bambusa teres, Dendrocalamus hamiltonii, and Dendrocalamus hookeri) in Nepal in the face of a changing climate, as it is forcing species to relocate and find new regions in search of better habitats. We determined the suitable habitat up to 2090 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) emission scenarios using an ensemble species distribution modeling approach. Mean diurnal range, minimum temperature of the coldest month, elevation, and temperature annual range were the key environmental variables for limiting bamboo distribution. The Middle Mountains of Eastern and Central Nepal were the most climatically suitable areas for bamboo species. The response to the changing climate was unique to each species, in which B. nepalensis and D. hookeri experienced significant expansion, whereas B. balcooa and B. nutans will experience contraction in climatically suitable areas by 2090. The suitable range of other species was relatively stable. To prevent extirpation, in-situ and ex-situ conservation approaches should be implemented by identifying climate refugia in districts like Parbat, Kaski, and Lamjung, as they are suitable for six of the species. Given the lengthy and varying flowering cycles, we recommend vegetative propagation to establish bamboo in new regions. Furthermore, a strategic bamboo management plan should be developed to tackle the extirpation of bamboo species due to climate change.