Exploring dynamics of social-ecological resilience across the Black Sea using a mixed-methods approach

The Black Sea is often regarded as one of the most degraded large marine ecosystems (LMEs) in the world. It faces numerous challenges, including eutrophication, overfishing, pollution, habitat destruction, and the introduction of invasive species. This already vulnerable ecosystem is under further pressure from the ongoing military conflict in the region. The Black Sea is also characterized by low environmental data availability, resulting in limited options to quantitatively study stressor-response dynamics and increased need for methods that can draw from qualitative systems understanding. Resilience research is growing globally but remains underrepresented in the Black Sea region, especially with regards to qualitative assessments.The focus of this research is to advance the ecosystem service (ES) resilience assessment approach, within the context of multiple simultaneously acting social and ecological stressors as relevant in the Black Sea. We identify if specific ES are resilient or not and reveal regional characteristics and mechanisms that either contribute towards resilience or against it. We also contribute towards methodological development by combining qualitative (e.g., expert knowledge) and quantitative data in resilience assessments. Such new approaches are especially valuable in the Black Sea region, where little monitoring data is available for several study locations and ecosystem services. A key component of the research is the application of Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA), a method that uses Boolean algebra and fuzzy set theory to identify configurations of conditions linked to specific outcomes.The findings have positive implications for the region and beyond, providing insights into ES resilience in other marine ecosystems. This study is conducted in cooperation with local stakeholders, fostering sustainable practices through community engagement. By identifying features that enhance or hinder ES resilience, this research can inform future marine spatial planning efforts. This research also underscores the value of continuous collaboration with experts from Black Sea riparian countries and leveraging local knowledge to address environmental challenges particularly in cases where data availability is low.