Summary and collation of responses

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Abstract. Background: The true limits to economic growth and how monetary value is determined relative to energy, goods, and services, are primary unresolved questions in economics. Lotka’s wheel and the long arm of history (Garrett et al., 2022) presents the conjecture that the past exerts an influence on the present through a ratio of ∑ni = 0 GW Pi E , where E is energy. The numerator of this ratio is a trailing average composed of the sum of gross world product (GW P) over all of human time, given the variable name W . The conjecture presents WE as so close to fixed that a constant w is substituted for it, based on a thermodynamic argument available in past work. The WE conjecture follow-on proposition is that when the first derivative of GW P, which equation includes energy, is in no growth balance, meaning dEdt = 0, then inflation forces real GW P to zero, even when nominal GW P is maintained. Lotka’s wheel has a 4 column supplement covering year 1–2019 CE: A. global GDP; B. W (yearly results of the ∑ni = 0 GW Pi ); C. population; and D. energy in exajoules E. Replicate datasets were assembled from literature for GW P (GW PRep) and E (ERep). Two problems: First, the equation leading to the central proposition that real gross world product will become zero when dEdt = 0 is based on erroneous use of an approximation constant for a relationship that is not actually a constant. All avenues for support of this proposition fail. Second, prior to 1970 WRepERep is radically higher than the supplement's WE because GW PRep values are somewhat higher, and ERep values are much lower. Key replicate data are high confidence. Conclusion: As presented, the long arm of history hypothesis is falsified. However, the thermodynamic argument in prior work is compelling, and in 1970, a radical change in slope of WE occurs. From 1970 forward, the long-arm of history hypothesis as presented appears probable. I believe that prior to 1970, the long-arm of history hypothesis may be true, but there are other factors that are not understood at this time.

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Receptor Mechanisms and Signaling Lipid Membrane Structure and Behavior Ion channel regulation and function

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DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2025-699-ac8

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Summary and collation of responses

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