Exploring Factors Associated with Girls’ Recidivism in Alabama: A Discrete-Time Survival Analysis

Despite a decline in the overall number of youth involved in the juvenile justice system since the 1990s, the proportion of girls has steadily increased. We examine recidivism among girls discharged from Alabama’s juvenile justice system, focusing on the timing of recidivism events and factors associated with reoffending. Using administrative data from 750 girls aged 13 to 21, we conducted a discrete-time survival analysis over a three-year period. Results revealed that 38% reoffended during the observation period, with older age, rural residence, short-term placements, and cohort membership significantly associated with lower odds of recidivism. These findings highlight the importance of tailoring interventions to the specific risks and needs of girls to support more effective outcomes in the juvenile justice system.