Waste-to-Energy Potential of Petroleum Refinery Sludge, Statistical Optimization, Machine Learning, and Life Cycle Costs Models

Sludge management in petroleum refineries is a costly and complex challenge, posing environmental risks and health hazards for humans. This study explores sludge incineration as a viable energy recovery method, using a case study from an Iranian refinery. Analysis of 15 sludge samples via bomb calorimetry revealed an average heat value of 3100 kcal/kg, which declines with increased moisture content, while higher chemical oxygen demand (COD) enhances energy yield. Over five years, 4000 tonnes of accumulated sludge presented an energy potential of 12,400 Gcal. Statistical modeling, including polynomial regression and response surface methodology (RSM), mapped sludge storage profiles and predicted calorific values based on COD and moisture variations. The results indicate anaerobic digestion at greater depths reduces organic matter, lowering energy potential. Differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) analysis confirmed key thermal transitions, supporting sludge incineration as an effective waste-to-energy strategy. Implementing this approach within a circular economy framework can optimize refinery waste management while reducing pollution, though proper combustion byproduct control is essential for sustainability and regulatory compliance.