Assessing the Role of Landuse Landcover Transition Factors to Mitigate Heat Risk: A Study on Urban Area of Dhaka North City

Dhaka City has witnessed a rise in temperaure of around 3 degree celcius in the last 20 years. However, the distribution of temperature varies spattially and the heat is intensified in certain area of the city due to the influence of various social and physical factors regulating the use of land. US Environmental Protection Agency blames pattern of urban spatial growth for the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect across all around the world. To mitigate UHI effect, it is important to identify the zone of potential heat increase and managing the use of land by controlling the growth of associated social and physical factors. This paper identifies the susceptible zone of heat increase by predicting the landuse landcover growth pattern which has caused an increase in surface temperature over the past two decades. The study also analyses the relative contribution of social and physical factors to understand the high level implication of managing landuse in mitigating heat risk. The susceptible heat zones indicate the area of the city should be prioritised for heat risk mitigation. On the other hand, the index based factor intensity analysis describes how to manage the use of land by plotting the combined value of social and physical (factor) index into quadrantal chart. The research finds that, social factors have higher level of collective influence compared to physical factors for surface temperature increase. However, this paper suggests Planning Authority should consider a balanced approach in development proposal so that the intensity of relevant social and physical factors remains at optimal level, which can be achieved by reviewing the quadrantal chart - an output of this research paper.