Endogenous integration of qualitative factors into quantitative energy transition modelling for development

Energy transition research in low- and middle-income countries often employs quantitative modelling to analyse possible future development pathways which leverage clean, renewable, and efficient energy to meet societal needs and promote development. Yet such quantitative methods are often critiqued for their reductionary nature, and failure to capture the wider contextual real-world complexities in which energy decisions are made. Integrating qualitative considerations into energy modelling offers an opportunity to reflect these complexities and strengthen techno-economic research, particularly when these considerations can be structurally integrated into models themselves. By developing a framework for endogenous qualitative integration into energy transition modelling for development – through extensive stakeholder co-production, qualitative storylines, and contextual analysis – this paper outlines feasible steps for qualitative incorporation at all phases of the modelling research process. Supported by the results of a systematic literature review, it recommends that qualitative considerations, such as social dynamics, human behaviour and institutional factors - alongside a particular focus on gender and social inclusion, resilience and climate adaptation awareness - be examined and integrated at all stages of the modelling research process, conceptualised into four phases: (1) ‘Pre-Modelling’, (2) ‘Storytelling and Narratives’, (3) ‘The Model’, and (4) ‘Beyond the Model’. • Addresses the unique needs of energy modelling research within low-and-middle income countries (LMICs). • A framework for qualitative integration into all stages of the energy modelling research to aid development is outlined. • A framework for endogenous qualitative integration into energy transition model structures is developed. • Using this framework energy modelling results can be more inclusive, meaningful, and realistic.