Projected changes of the extreme wind in the Czech Republic

The impact of climate-related events and their associated risks are important not only for policy makers, but they have become a relevant part of important economic analyses.For the territory of the Czech Republic (CZ) we identified as the primary risks the following phenomena related to the extreme weather: heat wave, cold wave, extreme wind, extreme precipitation (torrential and permanent), drought and the subsequent risks e.g. firerisk, severe thunderstorm. In our contribution, we focus on evaluation of the future changes in extreme wind events.The outputs of the ALADIN-CLIMATE/CZ model were used as input data. The ALADIN-CLIMATE/CZ model is based on the ALARO canonical model configuration of the ALADIN System. The model domain covers Central Europe, with a horizontal resolution 2.3 km. The analysis is based on three model simulations: Reanalysis for the period 1991–2020, historical run of the model (1995–2014) and climatological run for the period 2014–2099 under the emission scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.Our previous experience with the maximum wind speed model data suggest that their values are underestimated which is apparent from low numbers of days with maximum wind speed above a fixed threshold. For this reason to assess changes in the future, we focus on analysis of development of the values ​​corresponding to different return levels in the model data rather than on a direct comparison of the projected data and measurements for historical periods. Therefore, the changes were evaluated relatively by comparing the outputs from the climatological and control historical run of the model.This topic has been addressed by the project “ Prediction, Evaluation and Research for Understanding National sensitivity and impacts of drought and climate change for Czechia“ where we estimated risks of hydrometeorological phenomena and their expected changes during the 21st century.