Aviation sector decarbonisation as a case of deep uncertainty: The need for an integrative, exploratory, and interdisciplinary approach

Global demand for aviation is expected to double by 2050. This is set against the need to cut aviation CO 2 emissions from 1 GtCO 2 pa today to net zero over the same period. Using the UK aviation market as a proxy for the global market, we apply a Robust Decision Making (RDM) to develop integrative insights within a single analytical paradigm than discrete orthodox decision support analysis. This approach is justified based on a critical examination of the sector characteristics and the divergent short-term motivations of aviation actors as a case of deep uncertainty. RDM explicitly embraces deep uncertainty across a number of metrics which allows multiple values and diversity among stakeholders and viewpoints, and in which modelling can exist in an iterative exchange with policy development rather than separate from it. This approach has particularly highlighted the critical significance of asset stranding, the oligopolistic structure in aerospace manufacturers and fuel suppliers, alongside the monopsonies in airlines, as current barriers to progress within a single integrative analytical paradigm. This contribution highlights the need for the application of exploratory and interdisciplinary approaches to aviation decarbonisation transitions analysis to better inform aviation sector net zero strategies. It can improve the interdisciplinarity of analysis across technology, policy, and finance, and explore the extent of uncertainty so that robust strategies can be designed as well as generate insight into systematic upstream requirements. • Current aviation sector decarbonisation strategies are based on whole system optimisation approaches. • The extent of complexity and market structure makes application of current orthodox approaches sub-optimal. • A deliberative exploratory approach is applied revealing high levels of vulnerability in aviation decarbonisation plans. • Company behaviour analysis identifies high levels of asset stranding across a substantial proportion of futures explored. • There is a need for greater application of exploratory and interdisciplinary approaches in aviation for net zero analysis.