Rapidly increasing cyanobacteria blooms in the subarctic Great Slave Lake: observations from Indigenous, local, and scientific knowledge

Cyanobacteria blooms, typically associated with warm, eutrophic lakes, are increasingly observed in colder, oligotrophic lakes. Cyanobacteria blooms can have ecological impacts and pose health risks when composed of toxin-producing taxa. By combining Indigenous, local, and scientific knowledge sources, we document a profound shift in Great Slave Lake-a huge, remote, oligotrophic lake in Northwest Territories, Canada. Suspected blooms were first observed in 1989, localized near point-source sewage effluent. Since 2009, sporadic blooms have appeared in new areas of the North Arm, away from known point source nutrients, and become increasingly frequent. By 2020, bloom density increased, with the densest and most widespread blooms observed in 2024. These blooms have generally been nearshore and transient, most frequently located in sheltered waters, which are warmer and shallower relative to the rest of the lake. Dolichospermum is the dominant genus, with no microcystin toxins detected. We hypothesize these unprecedented blooms may be climate-driven, enabled by a combination of warmer water, reduced wind and ice cover, and potentially fueled by nutrient inputs from record water levels, intensified wildfires, permafrost thaw, and cultural eutrophication. By synthesizing across knowledge systems, we establish a foundation for collaborative research and monitoring in rapidly changing northern water bodies.