The impact of imbalanced groups in UEFA Euro 1980–2024 and comparison with the FIFA World Cup

Abstract Prior research found significant competitive imbalance in FIFA World Cup tournaments because FIFA does not allocate World Cup slots to continental confederations in proportion to the distribution of the best teams in the world. Since the UEFA Euro only consists of teams from Europe, it should be much easier for UEFA to create competitive balance. We empirically investigate competitive imbalance between groups at the UEFA Euro tournaments from 1980 through 2024. We find that competitive imbalance at the Euro is just as bad as it is in the World Cup. We also find that the impact of competitive imbalance on the probability of reaching the quarterfinals is the same across the World Cup and the Euro. UEFA creates competitive imbalance by sometimes protecting multiple low-ranked hosts and, most importantly, using inadequate methods to rank teams. We recommend that UEFA adopt an Elo rating system to rank teams.