Fighting for a Better Life: Protests and Public Opinion in South Africa

How do civic protests affect public opinion? Protests may lead governments to address certain policy issues, but can also exert pressure on politicians by causing shifts in public opinion. We examine the effects of peaceful and disruptive protest on public opinion using evidence from South Africa, where citizens regularly use protests to express dissatisfaction with public services. First, we test the effects of protests on public opinion in a difference-in-differences design, using multiple waves of a nationwide survey matched to geo-coded protest data. Second, we use a survey experiment that randomly exposes respondents to images of disruptive or peaceful protests. Third, we run a conjoint experiment to disentangle the effects of the different dimensions of protest. We find that peaceful protest where protesters attribute blame for their grievances attract more sympathy and public support. However, under specific conditions, disruptive protests are capable of attracting sympathy and support from the public.