Microgrid Rule-Based Control Energy Management with Probabilistic Solar Forecast

Microgrids with intermittent energy production and fluctuating demand requires robust energy management system to operate efficiently. A key point lies in the production forecast method and its integration within the decision-making process. In this paper, we introduce a straightforward rule-based control strategy paired with a probabilistic solar forecasting to manage a photovoltaic microgrid. Compared to an efficient but complex seasonal RBC with an ARMA forecast model, the version proposed in this paper increases the performance by 3.6% while using simpler structure and maintaining security of supply.