Exploring the crop suitability of first-contact tribal lands in the eastern United States: impacts of past and near-future climate conditions

Indigenous communities in the United States have experienced a long history of land displacement, disrupted food systems, and inadequate federal services, which have contributed to nutrition-related health disparities. Initiatives to support Indigenous agriculture may help address these injustices, yet little is known about the agricultural crop suitability of tribal lands, especially under future climate conditions. This study fills this gap by developing geoclimatic forecasting models that quantify the agricultural potential of all 24 first-contact tribal lands in Virginia, Maryland, and North Carolina. Geoclimatic models included stationary variables (soil texture, salinity, drainage, and pH; elevation; and slope) and dynamic variables (monthly and annual precipitation, and monthly temperature). Tribal representatives and community leaders were partners in this research to protect Indigenous data sovereignty, ensure cultural relevance of the research design, and provide tribe-specific data on land delineations. By 2040, optimal agricultural land was predicted to decrease by 27% (1.525 km²) and the number of culturally relevant crop species was predicted to decrease by 36% (from 11 to 7). These findings provide context for policy initiatives that have emerged or accelerated to restore environmentally sensitive agricultural areas, support new and existing Indigenous food producers, and strengthen consumer markets for Indigenous food products.