Analysis and forecasting of the vegetable growing industry development in the Kostanay Region of the Republic of Kazakhstan

The development of vegetable growing in the Kostanay region of the Republic of Kazakhstan is currently of significant interest and attracts the attention of not only agricultural producers in the Kostanay region, including agricultural enterprises and farmers, but also other entities interested in improving the efficiency of the industry, such as agronomists, investors, and processors, as well as government agencies, as the current situation in the industry requires a comprehensive modernization that covers all aspects of production and management.Based on the materials of the Bureau of National Statistics of the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan, a dynamic analysis of the quantitative indicators of vegetable growing in the Kostanay region was conducted using statistical research methods. The analysis revealed negative trends in the industry, including a decrease in gross production, area, and yield of vegetable crops. A polynomial regression trend was used to make a forecast, indicating a further unfavorable development in the industry.The application of qualitative, theoretical research methods to gain a deeper understanding of the reasons for its decline and identify potential growth areas has led to the conclusion that the most promising direction for the development of vegetable production in the Kostanay region is to support and encourage the production of vegetables by peasant and farm households. A comprehensive assessment of this direction, including a SWOT analysis, has provided a detailed picture of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and potential risks associated with the shift in vegetable production in the Kostanay region towards farm households.It is this category of farms that has the ability to quickly adapt to current market trends, build their own distribution network, use natural resources to reduce production costs, and provide the food market with higher-quality and healthier food products. These studies have demonstrated the high potential of peasant and farm households in addressing the key challenges of vegetable production in the Kostanay region.