Amphibian species vulnerability to agricultural pressure resulting from changing climate suitability in the southeastern United States

Various stressors threaten amphibian species, affecting global populations and altering habitat suitability. Warmer, drier conditions reduce breeding pond availability in the southeastern United States, particularly for anurans dependent on seasonally inundated wetlands for development during the larval stage. As climate change alters weather patterns and wetland hydroregimes, a landscape-level assessment of projected changes in species distribution and environmental stressors is necessary to prioritize timely ecological risk assessment and conservation management response. In this analysis, we examine the influence of changing climate suitability in response to potential climate scenarios on the distribution of three anuran species, Anaxyrus quercicus, Dryophytes avivoca, and Lithobates capito. These species present differing potential for range expansion and loss under three climate scenarios derived from shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP), SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. These differences result in variable overlap of corn, cotton, and soybean agricultural areas with some species experiencing greater overlap and potential pesticide exposure than others. The differential vulnerabilities for the species examined highlight the importance of including climate-based scenarios in assessments of habitat availability and connectivity. These approaches are crucial for understanding the threats to imperiled taxa such as amphibians in a changing landscape.