Exploring Pilot Digital Twin Solutions for a Floating City in the San Francisco Bay Area

Abstract Sea level rise (SLR) poses a critical threat to many coastal areas, leading to increased storm surges and flooding risks that endanger human lives, cause land loss, and harm coastal biodiversity. Scientists estimate that rising seas will affect 10% of the global population residing in low-lying coastal regions and may displace 100 million people by 2100. However, the established construction codes and standards remain overly simplistic, and structural design software is single-object-oriented, failing to address the complex demands of coastal infrastructure design. Consequently, we propose a digital twin (DTw) solution focused on pilot testing a conceptual floating city in the San Francisco Bay Area, which includes floating houses on adjustable pile-supported platforms within a water area protected by breakwaters. Utilizing DTw technology allows for time-domain analysis of the floating city’s dynamic response. It combines high-order and reduced-order models (ROMs) with real-time data on structural characteristics (e.g., natural frequencies), extreme weather events (e.g., storm surges), and long-term environmental changes (e.g., sea level rise). This paper assesses the data assimilation and ROM simulation capabilities of the floating city DTw, with a focus on exploring the feasibility of innovative floating city design, including tuned liquid dampers (TLDs) and nature-based breakwaters. The results highlight improvements in design and operational performance, cost efficiency, DTw reliability, and long-term sustainability. The pilot tests not only offer a unique design approach for commercial-scale floating cities but also align with the Justice 40 Initiative and Sustainable Development Goals.