Reducing uncertainties in seasonal hydrologic forecast to support reservoir operations and improve water economy in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Climate change led alterations in snowpacks as well as the rate and timing of snowmelt propagates to seasonal forecast errors leading to disruptions in downstream energy, ecology, and water security.Reservoir operations in the upper Colorado River Basin is a multidimensional headwater dependent system that needs to support downstream water needs for fisheries, prevent flooding, and also support hydropower generation.Errors in seasonal forecasts can therefore be costly.To that end, we developed an integrated assessment framework with NASA and local stakeholders including NOAA-CRBFC, and Bureau of Reclamation that couples forecast system based on NASA's Land Information System (LIS), River and Reservoir Modeling Tool (RiverWare), and GTMax model to understand if the forecasts and downstream water economy could be improved.The forecast system ingests satellite-based snow data as an attempt to reduce uncertainties related to snowmelt timing and quantity.We will present the framework, NASA LIS forecasts, Reservoir Operation and GTMax model results for Gunnison Basin, Upper Colorado River Basin.