The effects of hosting the Olympic and Paralympic Games on COVID-19 in Tokyo: real-time analyses and ex-post evaluation

Abstract We present a series of quantitative analyses conducted from mid-May 2021 to mid-June 2021, which examined the effects of hosting the Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games on the spread of COVID-19 in Tokyo. Our real-time analyses pointed out that (i) the direct effects on the spread of COVID-19 of welcoming foreign visitors related to the Games to Japan or allowing spectators in the competition venues would be limited or manageable, but (ii) the festive mood generated by the Games could greatly contribute to the spread of COVID-19 if it led to a decline in people’s willingness to take preventive actions against infection. Ex-post, the key takeaways of our real-time analyses are qualitatively in line with available empirical evidence. We also discuss the lessons of our experiences for a future pandemic.