Exploring experts’ uncertainties about gene drive technology for agricultural pest control in the U.S.: a qualitative study to inform innovation and decision-making

Abstract As experts consider what it might look like for gene drives to manage agricultural pests, there remain several uncertainties across a broad range of issues, including technical, ecological, regulatory, and social implications. Drawing on 25 expert interviews, we parse out these uncertainties and the potential for Adaptive Management to help guide development, deployment, and governance of gene drives for invasive agricultural pest management. Adaptive Management emerged specifically to attend to uncertainties in complex social-ecological systems, prescribing collective learning and responsiveness to stakeholder feedback to effectively reach management goals. Thus, Adaptive Management provides clear direction on how to account for and make decisions in the face of considerable uncertainties surrounding these gene drive tools. We also give some attention to the ways in which the uncertainties that are specific to agricultural applications are somewhat distinct from or consistent with global discourse around gene drive development across sectors.