Research Direction and Science Evaluation: The Role of Coherence and Alignment

ABSTRACT The decisions of funding agencies greatly influence the direction of scientific research; however, our understanding of how applicants' research directions affect the selection process remains limited. In this study, we investigate how a project's coherence with a scientist's previous work and its alignment with current scientific trends affect the probability of winning a renowned research fellowship. Employing a neural network algorithm to compute these indicators, we analyze the text of 2494 research projects proposed by scholars competing for the Sloan Research Fellowship, one of the most prestigious fellowships for early‐career researchers in North America. Our findings reveal notable differences across fields in the effect of coherence and alignment on the probability of being awarded, reflecting distinct organizational norms. For instance, applicants with coherent and aligned projects have higher chances of winning in life sciences & chemistry. In contrast, in physics, bibliometric measures such as the number of publications and citations outweigh research direction characteristics in the selection process. This study aims to offer valuable insights into the factors influencing scientific selection processes, exhibiting how they shape the research landscape for early‐career scientists across various academic fields.