Agroclimatic Monitoring and Current Trends in Agroclimatic Resources in Neighboring Regions of Russia and Kazakhstan

This article presents the results of monitoring agroclimatic resources in the main grain-producing adjacent regions of Russia and Kazakhstan for the period from 1976 to 2024. The monitoring is carried out on the basis of the Climate–Soil–Yield simulation system using surface air temperature and total precipitation with a monthly resolution. The estimates are obtained based on data from 17 meteorological stations (MSs) in Russia and 8 stations in northern Kazakhstan. Updated estimates of thermal and humidity resource trends are provided. It is shown that the estimates of the growth rate for the sum of active temperatures in the macroregion remain positive, but significantly lower than in Russia as a whole. At some observation points, a statistically significant increase in spring precipitation is recorded. No significant trends in summer precipitation are revealed. This paper presents the results of agroclimatic monitoring in 2024, including expected estimates of the climate-dependent yield of spring wheat and the bioclimatic potential in the macroregion. It is shown that, despite the changes, the agroclimatic potential of the macroregion remains significant.