Socio-demographic and environmental factors shape the distribution of bear-caused damages in a depopulating mountain region

Abstract Rural depopulation and land abandonment in parts of Europe have reduced anthropogenic deterrents to large carnivores, leading to rewilding and escalating conflicts with the remaining inhabitants. Such conflicts deepen negative attitudes toward these species, challenging conservation and coexistence efforts. In Bulgaria, a significant year-to-year increase in bear-caused damages has raised concerns for human livelihoods and bear conservation. This study examines socio-demographic and environmental drivers of bear-damages in the Western Rhodopes – a depopulating mountainous region, and hotspot for human-bear conflict. Multiple linear regression was applied using demographic and spatial variables to identify factors influencing bear damage incidence within municipalities. MaxEnt was applied to identify high-risk zones, based on land use and elevation. Regression results identified human population decline as a key correlate of bear damages, suggesting that reduced human activity and fewer anthropogenic deterrents (e.g., noise, dogs, human presence) around settlements, combined with persistent attractants like orchards and trash, increase conflict risks despite a declining bear population. The MaxEnt model revealed that land use types with human activity of low-medium intensity (e.g. remote communities interspersed with agricultural land, natural vegetation, and houses) experience most conflicts. While most damages occur around the mean regional elevation, incidents both higher and lower are increasing between 2004 and 2022, likely due to unsupervised grazing at higher elevations and reduced human activity around lower-elevation settlements. Increasing conflicts erode local trust in institutional wildlife management and worsen attitudes toward bears. Our findings highlight the intensification of human-bear conflicts in depopulating regions, threatening livelihoods, sense of security and the support for conservation efforts. This pattern is especially concerning amid global trends of urbanization and rural decline, highlighting the need for targeted interventions.