RMetS National Meeting and AGM 2025

This year’s National Meeting and AGM were set in the pleasant surroundings of Hartwell House, near Aylesbury, marking 175 years since the society was established there (Figure 1). After a welcome from the Royal Meteorological Society (RMetS) Chief Executive Liz Bentley, the afternoon opened with the Annual General Meeting (AGM). Details of this can be found in the resources section of the AGM event page on the society’s website (https://www.rmets.org/event/celebrating-175-years-royal-meteorological-society-and-agm-2025). Following the AGM, Liz Bentley gave a 175th anniversary historical review of the RMetS. It was founded on 3 April 1850, responding to the need for a body representing all involved in meteorological science. By this time, the growing number of observers was increasing our knowledge of the weather. Ten gentlemen met at John Lee’s home and observatory, Hartwell House, to form the British Meteorological Society, its first President Samuel Whitbread (of the brewing family). Early members included Luke Howard (who had named the clouds), George James Symons (who later formed the British Rainfall Organisation) and James Glaisher (who later measured the lapse rate in a balloon). Royal patronage was conferred to the society in 1883. Meetings and publications have been an important part of RMetS work ever since; the Quarterly Journal has been published continuously since 1871. Conferences are a growing area and have recently included hosting a meeting of the European Meteorological Society. The early career and student conference is now an important annual event, as are national and local meetings for amateur meteorologists. Prof. Bentley concluded by showing a timeline of RMetS activities through the past 175 years. This account was followed by Brian Golding’s fascinating Presidential Lecture: ‘Early warnings for all: why the time is now and why getting it right is so important’. As weather and climate extremes become more common in a warming world, meteorological services need to be able to inform everyone about the effects of such extremes to enable them to prepare. Prof. Golding showed various weather events to illustrate the point, emphasising that even though warnings may be issued, it may be impossible to respond appropriately – or even to deliver an appropriate message. Populations that are often most exposed to extreme weather are also often the most vulnerable in society, with increasing inequality exacerbating the risks. But they are also the least likely to be able to receive advance warnings. The effects of severe weather are significant: 156 million people were affected in 2024, with 16 000 deaths. The cost of severe weather is also growing rapidly worldwide. It is therefore essential that all nations’ weather services produce warnings suitable both for those at risk and for those who are able to respond. Yet some countries, especially in the Developing World, remain unable to disseminate warnings throughout their nations. Thus, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is setting a target to help make early warnings widely available, producing actions that can mitigate or protect areas expected to be affected, reducing vulnerability. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has stressed the need for all to receive warnings and be protected; Prof. Golding suggests that a multimedia approach will help with this. It is necessary to develop content for warnings that can be understood by all recipients and are specific to the area affected. This will allow action to be taken that is suited to the situation, such as the appropriate level of evacuations from areas that will be affected or mitigation strategies suited to the expected weather effects. To do this, meteorologists will need to cooperate with other disciplines. Development of partnerships with responders would help to map impacts and ensure use of local languages and idiomatic expressions. Involving citizens may also be helpful in adding local detailed knowledge or the provision of translations. Accurate forecasts are the most important part of the process. As our ability to predict local weather improves, so must our ability to produce suitable warnings that add value to numerical weather predictions, which do not yet resolve small features well. This means weather extremes are difficult to forecast and hazards are difficult to verify, which may alter the trust users have. Thus, our warnings must be consistent, noting that scale may be an issue. The development of artificial intelligence (AI) has been proposed to help us with our assessment of likelihood. However, AI may not be effective in this case, given the rarity of extreme weather. Prof. Golding also proposes the use of autonomous vehicles in areas where additional observations are needed; this may also assist with the verification of severe weather. Altogether, Prof. Golding indicated the need to bridge gaps between forecasts and their recipients; at present, our forecasts may be much better than our knowledge of their effects. Warnings must avoid complacency but make sure that there is no unnecessary damage, injury or death. Prof. Golding suggests that we should move to a system that shows how severe weather can affect different people or organisations in different ways (a dynamic approach). This can include the distress produced by weather disasters. We also need to state a suitable level of uncertainty about the warnings we issue. Dissemination must be through trustworthy agencies that use a wide range of media at a lead time that allows mitigation and appropriate protection. Questions on possible ‘warnings fatigue’ – the feeling among recipients that there are too many warnings issued and that few require action by the recipient; the use of information on impacts – how we can incorporate these into warnings; and the use of AI, its use or value, followed. Although some recipients will continue to feel challenged by warnings, the increased use of non-meteorological information is already proving useful; in the case of AI, we should be able to develop a statistical approach to the issue of warnings, as well as our knowledge of areas where there is limited information. After tea and coffee, the meeting returned for a panel discussion with members of the Society’s council on what the future is likely to hold, especially in the coming 25 years. The formal part of the meeting ended with the presentation by Derek Swannick, Paul Hardaker and Brian Golding of the Society’s awards for 2024. A list of the award winners is on the Society’s website: https://www.rmets.org/news/royal-meteorological-society-announces-2024-award-winners-landmark-anniversary-year. At the end of a busy and fascinating afternoon was a drinks reception and celebratory cake cutting in the main building of Hartwell House (Figure 2).