Fooled by the hype? The influence of technology hype on acquisition premiums in digital M&As

Given the rapidly evolving nature of digital technologies, the valuation of digital target firms in mergers and acquisitions (M&As) is particularly uncertain and complex. Adopting a socio-cognitive perspective, we argue that the cognitive burden of processing complex and uncertain information surrounding a digital technology creates a susceptibility for managers to rely on easily accessible expectations and media claims about these technologies, consistent with an availability heuristic. Consequently, managers incorporate excessively optimistic expectations from technology hype into their valuation assessments, leading them to pay higher acquisition premiums. We further propose that in-depth digital technology knowledge among the top management and prior experience in acquiring digital target firms alleviate the cognitive burden of assessing digital target firms, thereby reducing managers’ reliance on overly optimistic expectations associated with technology hype. Using a sample of digital M&As by S&P 1500 firms, we find support for these propositions. Additional analyses further reveal that digital M&As executed during hype phases generate lower post-acquisition returns than those completed outside hype phases. Overall, this study contributes to a better understanding of when and why heuristics may bias decision-making.