Variation in responses to temperature in admixed <i>Populus</i> genotypes predicts geographic shifts in regions where hybrids are favored

Plastic responses of plants to their environment vary as a result of genetic differentiation within and among species. To accurately predict rangewide responses to climate change, it is necessary to characterize genotype-specific reaction norms across the continuum of historic and future climate conditions comprising a species' range. The North American hybrid zone of Populus trichocarpa and Populus balsamifera represents a natural system that has been shaped by climate, geography, and introgression. We leverage a dataset containing 44 clonal genotypes from this natural hybrid zone, planted across 17 replicated common garden experiments spanning a broad climatic range. Growth and mortality were measured over 2 yr, enabling us to model reaction norms for each genotype across these tested environments. Species ancestry and intraspecific genomic variation significantly influenced growth across environments, with genotypic variation in reaction norms reflecting a trade-off between cold tolerance and growth. Using modeled reaction norms for each genotype, we predicted that genotypes with more P. trichocarpa ancestry may gain an advantage under warmer climates. Spatial shifts of the hybrid zone could facilitate the spread of beneficial alleles into novel climates. These results highlight that genotypic variation in responses to temperature will have landscape-level effects.