High-Resolution Assessment of Wind Energy Potential and Operational Risks in Complex Mountain-Basin Systems

Conventional wind resource assessments often fail to capture the complex interaction between topography and technology suitability in mountainous regions. This study employs a 40-year, 5 km resolution WRF dataset to construct a differentiated assessment framework for Sichuan Province, distinguishing between utility-scale and distributed generation potentials. The results reveal that topography dictates a stark west-to-east resource gradient, with the Extreme Wind (EW) region possessing a wind power density (1166 W/m2) exceeding that of the sheltered Basin by over 24 times. However, this high potential is coupled with severe operational risks, as overspeed shutdown durations (>25 m/s) in the EW region exceed those in the High Wind Plateau by more than 4.45 times. Crucially, shifting to a distributed generation perspective (2–15 m/s) fundamentally reconstructs the resource landscape: the Basin gains a substantial “light breeze dividend” with available hours increasing by ~89%, whereas the EW region suffers a “high-speed penalty” of ~7% due to frequent cut-out events. Despite a systematic model bias attributed to the “representativeness mismatch” between ridge-resolving grids and valley-bottom observations, the revealed relative spatiotemporal patterns remain robust.