Projected niche shifts of invasive Prunus cerasifera under climate change scenarios and its consequences

Prunus cerasifera, native to southeast Europe and southwest and central Asia, is highly valued as rootstock for fruit trees, and ornamental and nectar tree. Its invasiveness outside its native range indicates the need for thorough risk assessment in the context of changing climate, given its importance in supporting fruit production and managing natural populations. Using the MaxEnt method, we predicted the current potential range of P. cerasifera, its shifts under four socio-economic scenarios (SSPs), and four global climate models (GCMs) for 2041–2060 and 2061–2080. We identified the annual temperature range and precipitation totals in the coldest quarter as primary factors shaping P. cerasifera distribution. Its optimal conditions occur in areas with moderate annual temperature amplitude and cool, wet winters. We predict the range expansion to the north and east in Europe, North America, and Japan, the maintenance of most of its current potential range, and reduction in the southern part of its native range. As a climate change ‘winner’, P. cerasifera can support the sustainability and potential expansion of plum, peach, apricot, and almond orchards. However, it may contribute to the spread of pests and pathogens affecting these species. In the warmest regions, climate change may threaten orchards based on P. cerasifera rootstocks, which may require consideration of alternative species. In regions outside its native range where P. cerasifera populations are expected to persist and expand, studies are essential to monitoring its spread and impact on local plant communities, particularly given the limited knowledge of this species ecology.