Estimating the Size of Illicit Cigarette Trade and Tax Evasion in Zambia: Results from the Empty Pack Survey Method

This study presents the first national survey on illicit tobacco trade in Zambia. Although approximately one in ten cigarettes in Zambia are illicit, this prevalence is lower than in many neighboring countries. Nonetheless, securing the cigarette supply chain remains a critical priority to prevent further tax evasion and illicit trade. These findings highlight the need for Zambia to ratify and implement the World Health Organization Protocol on Illicit Tobacco Trade. The study also underscores the need to implement a track and trace system that would help customs officers detect counterfeit and smuggled cigarettes and intensifying border patrols.