A Secondary Analysis of Invasion Risk in the Context of an Altered Thermal Regime in the Great Lakes

Invasive species and changing thermal structure are widely recognized as drivers of change to freshwater ecosystems, yet the interactions of these two drivers have rarely been studied. This study conducted a secondary analysis of a large federal database (GLANSIS) of literature used in assessing the current risk of potential nonindigenous species to the Great Lakes (watchlist species) to evaluate how increased water temperatures would impact the risk of establishment posed by these species. Our analysis found that 46% of the current watchlist species would pose a higher potential risk while 7% would pose a lower potential risk. Lake Superior and Lake Huron exhibited significant increases in the number of species likely to find a suitable habitat.