Phytoplankton Biomass Dynamics in Wet (2019) and Dry (2023) Years in Lake Pontchartrain Estuary, Louisiana from Sentinel 2-MSI and PACE-OCI Observations

This study provides a comprehensive assessment of phytoplankton biomass dynamics in Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana, by combining monthly water quality data with multispectral and hyperspectral satellite observations using a machine learning algorithm. A machine learning model based on Variational Autoencoder (VAE), globally applicable, was used to estimate phytoplankton biomass via chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) from Sentinel 2-MSI and NASA's new hyperspectral mission, PACE-OCI, enabling the first direct comparison between the two sensors. The model performed well in this complex estuarine system, with higher accuracy from PACE-OCI (MAE: 1.48, RMSE: 10.40, slope: 0.87) than Sentinel 2-MSI (MAE: 1.57, RMSE: 11.08, slope: 0.83). This approach enabled continuous high-resolution monitoring of phytoplankton biomass across space and time. Comparative analysis of 2019, a wet year with Bonnet Carré Spillway (BCS) openings, and 2023, a dry year with extremely low riverine inputs, revealed distinct biomass dynamics. In 2019, BCS discharge initially suppressed Chl-a within turbid waters (<5 mg Chl-a m^-3) but later acted as a nutrient and hydrodynamic driver, transporting nutrients toward the lake outlet and Mississippi coast, promoting high biomass (25-45 mg Chl-a m^-3) near the entrance. In contrast, dry conditions in 2023 led to more frequent-than-expected high biomass (>35 mg Chl-a m^-3), persisting in the lake center. Similar spatial patterns were observed again in 2024, revealed for the first time by PACE-OCI. This study demonstrates the value of satellite-derived observations for capturing transient phytoplankton biomass events and highlights the potential of PACE-OCI's hyperspectral capabilities to better distinguish phytoplankton communities and improve understanding of their responses to freshwater inflows and associated processes driving pulses into estuaries.