CAN A DECOUPLING OF TRAFFIC AND ECONOMIC GROWTH BE ENVISAGED? IN: SOCIAL CHANGE AND SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT

Three conditions are necessary for sustainable development: general economic growth, preservation of natural resources, and social equity. The paper's approach is on passenger transportation and it focuses on the private car as the dominant mode, internalizes the threshold saturation calculations and shows a long term trend that is increasing. The strategy is based on the combination of demographic approach and econometric studies. The evolution of behavior is analyzed in a disaggregated way while noting the heterogeneous dynamic factors between groups of households or motorists. Two points are developed: the decomposition of the dynamics of automobile traffic into the number of cars and the average mileage per vehicle; and the principal heterogeneity factors of behavior, particularly geographic criteria linked to population density.