Assessing the potential spread of arthropod pests of wild and cultivated <i>Vaccinium</i> species in British Columbia using digitized occurrence records: the blackheaded fireworm <i>Rhopobota naevana</i> (Hübner, 1817) as an exemplar

Plant species within the genus Vaccinium L. (Ericaceae)—including blueberries and their relatives—grow both naturally and as cultivated crops in British Columbia. Vaccinium cultivation is primarily undertaken in the southern areas of British Columbia, but there is growing interest in cultivating Vaccinium plants further north, particularly as the climate warms in northern parts of Canada. Vaccinium species are an important food source for humans and many other species, including insects. Much remains unclear about which insect species may pose a threat to these plants at northern latitudes, both now and in the future. We identified Vaccinium insect and other arthropod pest species through a literature review and used this list of species to inform and prioritize the collection of digitized occurrence records. We assessed the degree of risk each species poses to Vaccinium cultivation, and found that Rhopobota naevana (Hübner, 1817), the blackheaded fireworm (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), is a Vaccinium pest of high concern in British Columbia, where it is a significant pest of cranberry. We used species distribution modelling (Maxent) to assess the distribution of R. naevana under both current and future climate change scenarios in British Columbia. Improving our understanding of pest distributions and how they may change in response to climate change is important for informing future pest risks for northern cultivation of wild Vaccinium and related crops in British Columbia and other northern regions of Canada.