Red Lines versus Negotiables: How Exposure to Wartime Violence Influences Support for Peace Settlements in Ukraine

What shapes attitudes towards wartime negotiation? Does exposure to violence lead citizens to take a hard-line approach to any peace settlements? Or does it make them more open to peace to make the violence stop? To answer these questions, we conducted a series of surveys and survey experiments in Ukraine in July 2022 and May 2023. First, using a series of survey experiments, we show that Ukrainians are flexible on certain issues, but others are considered red lines and not up for negotiation. Second, in the short-term we find that exposure to violence does not turn Ukrainians against negotiations with Russia, in some cases it makes them more amenable. Finally, over a longer duration of the war we find that support for a negotiated solution drops. Our evidence suggests this drop is linked to exposure to violence and to beliefs about the war's future course.