Climate change and agriculture:A global meta-analysis of the Ricardian literature

This chapter presents the first global meta-analysis of Ricardian estimates assessing the impact of climate change on agricultural rents. Based on 6,105 marginal effects from 227 studies across 71 countries, covering 64% of global cropland and 80% of crop production value, we provide a global synthesis of how temperature and precipitation affect Ricardian rents. Our estimates suggest that a 1°C increase in temperature reduces agricultural rents by 7–9% globally, while the effect of precipitation is smaller and statistically insignificant on average. Precipitation effects are more variable and context specific. The analysis reveals substantial heterogeneity across regions, countries, and seasons, and finds indications of publication bias in temperature estimates. Countries showing the largest negative impacts of temperature and the largest positive impacts of precipitation tend to be those with limited empirical coverage and small sample sizes. We discuss methodological challenges in aggregating Ricardian results and outline directions for future research.