Conserving key coastal areas for mangrove expansion and eco-tourism secures ecosystem services under sea-level rise

Blue carbon nature-based solutions (NbS) can mitigate climate change through carbon sequestration and storage, and support climate change adaptation and resilience by supplying ecosystem benefits. We apply a scenario-based natural capital assessment to support the design of NbS for climate mitigation and adaptation, by considering tourism and coastal protection in two large coastal lagoons in the United Arab Emirates. Under future sea-level rise, ecosystem services are greatly reduced with impacts on habitat quality leading to reductions in blue carbon storage, coastal protection, and tourism in both study sites. While ecosystem service production from NbS differs between sites, mangrove expansion contributed to more types of ecosystem services, while conservation resulted in the greatest benefits for habitat quality and tourism. Safeguarding key areas for natural mangrove expansion can greatly enhance multiple ecosystem service benefits. Our findings can guide investments in blue carbon NbS that mitigate climate change, enhance climate resilience and adaptation, and deliver environmental and economic benefits.