Rebel responses to disasters in conflict zones: a case study of Cyclone Mocha in Myanmar

Populations in conflict-affected contexts face overlapping drivers of disaster risk. This article explores the intersection of disasters and armed conflict through an analysis of the role of non-state armed groups, focusing on the Arakan Army (AA)'s response to Cyclone Mocha in Myanmar's Rakhine State in 2023. Using the process tracing method and drawing on interviews and secondary sources, the study finds that the AA's fragmented territorial control and parallel governance structures nonetheless enabled extensive humanitarian operations through collaboration with civil society and volunteer networks. While the military junta's response was limited, the AA led local relief and recovery, avoiding civilian defection and preserving its military capacity. Although the cyclone temporarily delayed conflict escalation, the AA's relief efforts also served as strategic investments for a planned military offensive. The response enhanced the AA's legitimacy among ethnic Rakhine communities while undermining the regime's authority. The findings underscore the complexities of disaster response by illustrating how such activities in conflict zones can simultaneously alleviate suffering and reshape power relations.