Arab Agricultural Trade Integration as an Entry Point for Achieving Food Security in the Face of Current Regional Changes

Agricultural trade integration among Arab nations is a fundamental pillar for bolstering economic cooperation and supporting the development process through the flow of goods and services, thereby contributing to the achievement of Arab food security in light of current regional changes. However, intra-Arab agricultural and food trade remains limited, not exceeding 1.3% and 1.02% of total Arab foreign trade, respectively. This reflects a significant reliance on external markets despite the capacity of Arab markets to absorb over 60% of their needs. The research aimed to analyze the general trends in total, agricultural, and food intra-Arab trade; identify the contribution of Arab countries to these exchanges and their export opportunities; and study the repercussions of regional changes on this trade. The results indicate that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are among the most prominent contributors to intra-Arab agricultural trade, accounting for approximately 38%. Nevertheless, the majority of their exports and imports are directed outside the Arab region, causing a loss of real opportunities for the Arab world to activate its internal trade integration. Structural Deficits and Coverage Ratios: A structural deficit was evident in most food groups, where the ratio of export coverage of imports did not surpass 50% in groups like cereals, sugar, oils, pulses, and red meat. Coverage improved in groups such as vegetables, fish, and fruits, while the dairy group excelled with a coverage ratio exceeding 100%. Trade Openness and Potential: The agricultural export coverage rate of imports reached about 2.02%, while economic openness among Arab countries was recorded at approximately 4.06%. This disparity suggests the potential for redirecting a larger portion of trade exchanges internally to enhance food security. Import vs. Export Propensity: The research also revealed that the propensity for agricultural imports outweighs the propensity for exports by about 4.01% versus 1.34%. This disparity exposes an external food and economic dependency that drains a substantial part of national incomes. In conclusion the findings underscore the existence of latent opportunities to activate agricultural trade as a key mechanism in supporting Arab food security.