Forecasting the Emerging Risks of Aquaculture Growth in the One Health Lens in the Zambezi's Kafue Basin, Zambia

Abstract Aquaculture has emerged as one of the fastest-growing food production sectors globally and it is increasingly being promoted in Zambia as a strategy to improve food security and health nutrition, provide employment, and reduce pressure on capture fisheries. The Kafue Basin, a sub-basin of the Zambezi River system, is a highly productive yet ecologically sensitive landscape where aquaculture expansion is occurring alongside multiple competing water uses. This paper presents an expert-informed synthesis of perpectives drawing on previous empirical research and postgraduate thesis findings to examine the environmental, socio-economic, and governance risks associated with the expansion of both commercial and small-scale aquaculture in the basin through a One Health lens. Integrating hydrological, ecological, livelihood, and aquatic animal health perspectives, the analysis highlights nutrient pollution, degradation of wetland integrity, disease transmission, genetic risks, competition over water resources, and livelihood conflicts as key emerging threats, particularly in contexts of weak regulation. The paper further proposes practical mitigation strategies and policy recommendations informed by experiences from comparable river basins, emphasizing the importance of integrated basin planning, community participation, adaptive management, and cross-sectoral governance to support sustainable aquaculture development while safeguarding human, animal, and environmental health in the Zambezi’s Kafue Basin, Zambia. Keywords: Aquaculture; Food systems; Fish; Biosecurity risks; Wetlands; Environment; Kafue Basin; Policy; One Health