Assessing regional exposure to the European energy transition using principal component analysis

Abstract This study constructs a multidimensional exposure index for 242 European regions to assess vulnerabilities linked to the European Union’s transition to climate neutrality under the European Green Deal and Fit for 55. Using principal component analysis on 11 indicators of fossil fuel dependence and emissions intensity, four key exposure dimensions are identified: coal and heavy industry, oil refining and maritime trade, end-use emissions, and agricultural emissions. The results reveal concentrated exposure across several member states, underscoring the need for place-sensitive just transition policies that support reskilling, economic diversification, and equitable climate action across regions.