Market Intelligence and Gravitational Model to Identify Potential Agricultural Export Markets in the Lambayeque Region, Peru, 2015–2024

High-quality agricultural products from the Lambayeque region have contributed to the growth of Peru’s agro-export sector and increased international trade. However, the need for agricultural exports to be more resilient and sustainable is demonstrated by the fact that markets are still concentrated, logistical costs are high, and global demand is constantly shifting. The purpose of this study is to use a gravity-based trade model and market intelligence techniques to analyse the agricultural exports from the Lambayeque region between 2015 and 2024. Using official data from the World Bank, AZATRADE, CEPII, and MINCETUR, we employed a quantitative explanatory approach. The results show that the concentration of businesses has significantly decreased while the value of exports has increased steadily. The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index increased from 6209 in 2015 to 1349 in 2024, and export destinations have become slightly more diverse. Exports are negatively impacted by geographic distance, but free trade agreements greatly benefit them. There is a lot of export potential in markets like Finland, Indonesia, Austria, Bolivia, and Vietnam. However, Israel and Hong Kong appear to be full. Overall, the findings indicate that Lambayeque’s export performance has improved, but it still runs the risk of becoming overly focused on a single sector. Long-term sustainability of the region’s agricultural exports depends on enhancing logistical infrastructure, bolstering market intelligence, and promoting regional diversity.