Projecting future mortality risk of pleural mesothelioma in Italy (2020–2034): Bayesian age–period–cohort analysis over 40 years of death registration

These results align with the literature in predicting the timing of the mesothelioma peak and offer new insights into age-specific trends, the rate of decline, and geographical patterns. They provide valuable evidence on the heterogeneous asbestos legacy across regions, supporting targeted public health actions and health planning.