Geospatial assessment of land use dynamics and Built-Up Area (BUA) expansion as determinants of island development trajectories

This study aimed to analyze the rate of changes in Land Use Land Cover (LULC) and Built-Up Area (BUA). Geospatial and remote sensing approaches were applied to analyze the trends of LULC changes and BUA expansion from 2017-2024. Results of the accurate testing have shown 98.03 for 2017 and 97.81 in 2024 indicating accurate data sets averaging 2% pixels misclassified both acceptable based on the 85% thresholds for remotely sensed data. Data on changes of LULC have shown fluctuations in land allocation, with forest accounts the largest with 83.38 in (2019) and 89.05% (2023), with declined in 2024 at 84.61. Waterbodies gradually reduced from 1.82% in 2017 to 1.64% in 2024, barren recorded fluctuation of 2.40% and 3.39%. Moreover, BUA exhibits an increasing trend, which peaks in 2020 at 4.58% and records stabilization of 4.27% in 2024, Furthermore, agricultural lands demonstrate the highest recorded variability with a notable reduction in 2022 of 3.64% but recovered in 2024 with 7.08% suggesting dynamism in land conversion processes. Generally, the observed LULC change patterns underscores the continuing pressures on the remaining forest and agricultural land which was driven by the BUA expansion and land conversion.