Resilience of offshore wind resources in Australia under climate change using CMIP6 CORDEX projections

The Australian offshore wind sector is expanding, yet lacks a comprehensive, high-resolution national assessment of past and projected ocean wind climate. Understanding climate patterns over the next 30–50 years is vital for resource planning, safety, and the resilience of offshore wind infrastructure. This study applies the Bureau of Meteorology Atmospheric Regional Projections for Australia (BARPA) Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) seven-model ensemble to assess surface wind speed projections and their effect on offshore wind energy production. Across declared offshore wind farm regions, the projected signal of change is small and generally lower than seasonal and inter-annual variability. Areas with slight reductions in wind power density and production also show minor increases in variability, which may reduce turbine efficiency. These changes, however, fall within the uncertainty range of climate model projections, leaving future wind resource trends uncertain. Western Australia is an exception, showing a notable wintertime decrease in wind power density under both low- and high-emission scenarios. Overall, the reliability of wind energy production remains largely unaffected, with only slight reductions in the next 30 to 50 years, ranging from 0.1% to 2.6%, depending on the region. • Projected offshore wind power changes in Australia lie within natural climate variability and model uncertainty. • No robust multi-model signal of change in offshore wind energy production; projected shifts are small, and differences between low- and high-emission scenarios are minor. • Western Australia’s Bunbury declared offshore wind zone shows a wintertime decline in wind power, warranting regional impact assessment.