Identifying the critical elements for a next generation of climate vulnerability assessments for fisheries

ABSTRACT The biological impacts of climate change on ocean ecosystems and fisheries are an increasing global concern, influencing fish distribution, phenology, and productivity. To address these challenges, fisheries management agencies are developing climate-informed strategies to build resilience in marine species, ecosystems, and fisheries. Climate vulnerability assessments (CVAs) have been widely used to evaluate the vulnerabilities of species, ecosystems, fisheries, and communities to climate change, but their uptake in decision making has been limited. Here, we explore the factors that are hindering broader adoption and integration of CVA results into active fisheries management. We identify the critical components of a next-generation CVA framework that is dynamic, adaptive, and better suited to support climate responses and adaptation by fishers, fisheries managers, and coastal communities. These elements will serve to improve applicability of CVAs while emphasizing the integration of qualitative and quantitative data, including experiential knowledge, embracing dynamic models, and quantifying uncertainty to create impactful spatially and temporally explicit vulnerability assessments. The proposed changes to existing CVA approaches aim to improve fisheries management by more explicitly linking ecological and socio-economic systems and providing actionable insights for climate-resilient fisheries. These components also better align CVAs with ongoing efforts by various government initiatives and offer a path forward for improving the climate resilience of fisheries and coastal communities.