Geopolitical risks and environmental sustainability: Can economic complexity and renewables tip the balance?

While the environmental consequences of geopolitical tensions have received growing academic attention, little is known about how these dynamics manifest in the Middle East and Africa (MEA)—a region both environmentally vulnerable and geopolitically fragile. Even less is understood about how structural capacities may condition or buffer these effects. This study addresses these critical gaps by examining how escalating geopolitical risks affect environmental sustainability in five MEA economies—Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Turkey, and South Africa—over the period 1990 to 2023. Using the Cross-Sectionally Augmented ARDL (CS-ARDL) model, we find that geopolitical risks exert a persistent and statistically significant negative influence on environmental quality. However, both renewable energy deployment and economic complexity not only improve environmental outcomes independently but also significantly moderate the adverse effects of geopolitical risks. These findings highlight that structural resilience—through energy transitions and economic sophistication—can serve as a strategic defense against the environmental costs of instability. Policy implications are drawn for designing adaptive sustainability strategies in regions facing geopolitical uncertainty. • The environmental impacts of geopolitical risks in the selected MEA economies are investigated. • The moderating roles of renewable energy and economic complexity are assessed. • Renewables and economic complexity moderate the environmental harm of geopolitical risks. • Enhancing renewable energy and promoting economic diversification renewables across MEA economics.