Ecological Forecasting for Readiness, Resilience, and Response

Abstract The American Meteorological Society’s Committee on Ecological Forecasting, established in 2014, addresses the growing necessity for interdisciplinary collaboration between ecological and physical sciences to enhance forecasting capabilities amid escalating environmental challenges. Weather and climate events (e.g., hurricanes, floods, wildfires) produce significant ecological disturbances that disrupt ecosystems, ultimately impacting human populations and other living organisms. This article expands upon the Statement on The Future of Ecological Forecasting adopted by the American Meteorological Society (AMS) in January 2024 by providing essential context, references, and motivation. It underscores the integral relationship between human well-being and ecosystem services, which rely on stable ecological functions. By elucidating the potential of ecological forecasts (“ecoforecasts”) to predict significant changes in ecosystems that affect human populations, economies, and health, this article advocates for a coordinated approach among researchers, policymakers, and practitioners. Enhanced operational systems for ecological forecasting promise increased lead times and analytics to facilitate proactive planning and funding for shared use and mitigation efforts. The transdisciplinary nature of ecological forecasting aims to unify insights across various scientific domains, ultimately leading to improved decision-making processes that support sustainable adaptation to rapid environmental change. Significance Statement The AMS Statement on The Future of Ecological Forecasting (2024) marks a key milestone in linking meteorological and ecological forecasting, offering a framework for interdisciplinary collaboration among AMS, professional societies, agencies, stakeholders, and policy groups. This paper aims to preserve the Statement as a lasting reference, augment it with recent scientific and technical developments, and promote its use as a widely accessible planning tool to reinforce strategic advancements in ecological forecasting.