Projecting the future of Canada’s ocean resources for a Blue Economy

The Blue Economy promotes ocean-based sectors that support social equity, environmental sustainability, and lasting economic development, and Canada is currently developing a national ocean strategy to meet these goals. However, climate change is reshaping ecosystems by altering variables like water temperatures, oxygen levels, acidity, sea levels, wind, and current patterns, with direct consequences for sectors that rely on ocean resources. This study projects the future availability of marine resources in Canada for fisheries, mariculture, ocean energy, blue carbon, and ecotourism, with a focus on regional differences and impacts on coastal communities that depend on them. Across Canada’s Pacific, Arctic, and Atlantic coasts, results indicate mixed outcomes depending on the region and climate scenario. By the end of the century, compared to today, mean changes in resource potential under a low-emissions scenario (SSP1-2.6) are projected to range from approximately +1% to +18%, while under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), from approximately -7% to +38%, depending on the region. Nationally, average availability is projected to rise by 5.7% (SSP1-2.6) and 8.6% (SSP5-8.5). However, these averages obscure severe, localised declines, particularly in parts of the Arctic and East Coast, where resource availability could decrease by up to 50%. Such declines could directly affect the livelihoods of approximately 6,000 people, primarily in Indigenous communities, employed in the fisheries and aquaculture sectors. These findings demonstrate the need for local, regional, and national adaptive climate-resilient policy frameworks that prioritise support for coastal communities, foster inclusive leadership, promote equity in benefits and responsibilities, and ensure the long-term sustainability of ocean-dependent livelihoods and ecosystems. • Climate change is altering ocean conditions, affecting key marine sectors such as fisheries, mariculture, and ocean energy. • Overall, resource availability projections for Canada's coasts show mixed outcomes, with changes ranging from -7% to +38%, depending on the region and emissions scenario. • Localised declines in resource availability of up to 50%, particularly in the Arctic and East Coast, could impact vulnerable sectors, especially those in Indigenous communities. • Findings highlight the need for adaptive, inclusive, climate-resilient policies to support coastal communities and ensure sustainable ocean-based livelihoods.