Regional Energy Transition Amidst Trade and Bloc Rivalries: Proactive or Counterproductive Democratic Governance?

Trade fragmentation (TDF) and bloc rivalries impact energy transition pathways through raw material trade and the decisions of major blocks. Democratic governance, whether centralized or populist, also influences trade, bloc decisions, and the energy transition. We investigate how regional energy transitions in Asia, Europe, and North America are shaped by global TDF and bloc rivalry (China‐Russia and US‐EU) while considering the role of democratic governance and its interaction with trade and bloc fragmentation. Using three sets of monthly data from January 2000 to December 2023 for these regions, we apply wavelet local multiple correlation (WLMC) and time‐varying quantile causality (TV‐QC) methods to address the non‐normality and nonstationarity of the data. Results indicate that TDF negatively impacts Asian energy transition (AET) and European energy transition (EET) primarily during extreme booming markets, while North America experiences adverse effects across both slack and booming markets. The bloc rivalry between China and Russia disrupts Asia’s energy transition into extreme booming markets. Besides, the fragmentation of the US‐EU bloc hampers Europe’s energy transition under similar conditions and has a milder effect on North America. Democratic governance strongly supports North America’s energy transition but yields mixed outcomes in Asia and Europe. Notably, Asian democratic governance (AGV) partially mitigates the effects of trade and China‐Russia bloc fragmentation (CRF), where European and North American governance shows noninterference in both TDF and intrabloc rivalry issues. We suggest accountable democratic governance to effectively manage trade and bloc rivalries in promoting regional energy transition.