Unveiling Patterns and Drivers of the Carbon Transfer Embodied in Global Copper Trade

Copper (Cu) is a bulk trade commodity whose production is carbon-intensive, making embodied carbon transfer (ECT) in its trade an emerging concern. However, a systematic understanding of the evolution and drivers of Cu-related ECT remains limited. This study quantified the historical ECT in global Cu trade using trade flows and country-specific carbon emission intensity (CEI) of Cu and identified the key factors shaping its evolution. Key findings are (1) the ECT in global Cu trade increased by 52% during 2005–2023 and reached 75.3 Mt CO2-eq in 2023, predominantly driven by the trade of Cu concentrate. (2) ECT hotspots have shifted from “North–South” trade to “South–South” trade with 37% of global ECT attributed to the trade between Cu resource-rich economies (e.g., Chile, Peru, Mexico, Kazakhstan) and China. (3) Since 2011, the global ECT has been increasingly driven by trade volume effect, which contributed a 46.2 Mt CO2-eq increase in ECT between 2011 and 2023, although the decline in Cu CEI offset 11% of the cumulative ECT growth during this period. This study offers critical insights for improving the accuracy of ECT and coordinating global decarbonization strategies across global metal supply chains.